Market outlook

• Dow Jones

• Hang Seng
• STI

I would recommend shorting the STI if any rebound happens. Keeping time frame of at least 1 week before cutting any lost or when the Red parabolic SAR cuts the price curve.


* This blog is serve as a means for me practise my TA, and for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

Week analysis of market

Dow Jones



Based solely on TA. It seems that it is bearish at the moment. And highly lightly that it is going to go lower.


STI


Based solely on TA. It is not as bearish on the Dow Jones, but it is highly lightly that we will be following the direction of the US. However this 'not as bearish' sign could mean that when there is a rebound in the Dow Jones, the STI will jump higher than the Dow Jones.


In general

I feel that the market now is subject to too many 'big news'. The recent summit's outcome will definitely have an impact of the world's stock markets. Hence I feel that, unless you are investing for the long term, please stay away from the market.

In my personal opinion, TA will be more effective in a trending market where there is no major 'big news' that can on its own change the direction of the market instantly. However in the past few weeks, there are too many packages to 'help' the economy and too many 'big bad news' that are moving the world's market.

Trading now, is really more like gambling.

Market trend update

Looking at the charts, the Asian markets does not seem to be in any major trend.
However the US side seems to be going into the oversold region. lets see if a rebound is going to happen in the next few trading days.. ( hold back on the shorting till the rebound comes..)

STI got whacked again

Once again the market dropped really badly. STI dropped by 78.06 (4.14%)

The market is really volatile once again, whatever gains in a rally is quickly lost.

So I decided to chance trading strategy. I shall now only do shorts, hence even though there might be a small rebound, I will not go long and instead try to find a good time to start shorting the market during the rebound.

My simulations for the past 1 year shows that almost any kind of shorting method is profitable. This shows that the bear market is affecting almost every stock. And if you actually try to go long, the returns are really really small.

Lets try out the new strategy..which means, for now, we shall stay away till the market shows a good down trend..

Keep watch on this blog for more updates!

Trading simulator

Those who are interested to try out trading futures, here is a simulator with real quotes from SGX
( Given to me by one of our readers)

Link : http://futuressimulator.sgx.if5.com/


Also, just a note on the market. It seems like sentiments are still not clear. Yesterday's rise might be a false alarm. We are still in a very neutral market trend region..(very close to the short term MAs and the center of the bollinger band) for the short term. So by right, trading should be reduced to a minimum as its actually more of 'tikaming' now then trading..

TA on Jaya Holdings and Oceanus

As requested by bay

• Oceanus

In my opinion, it is bullish, as all the signals are there.
However, it has the same problem with volume as Tat Hong. A big drop in volume from 5-6 Nov, though it is still increasing from 6-10 Nov. Also, the volume signal here is not as good as Tat Hong, as the increase in volume is nothing out of the ordinary. Whereas Tat Hong's increase in volume is something unusual.
Thus, I would not trade this stock as not all signals are clear, even though most signals shows a bullish trend.

• Jaya Holdings

I would definitely not trade this. The parabolic SAR almost gives a sell signal. Together with an increase in volume as the share price dropped. The stock is also trading below the moving averages.



*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

New stock picks (updated)

Looked through my list of stocks again, and this time I included the volume parameter and came up with these stocks ( based on closing price of 10 Nov)

• Cosco Corp $0.93
• STX PO $1.04
• Swiber $0.71
• Tat Hong $0.615

Used a combination of Parabolic SAR, moving averages , bollinger band and volume to come up with this list.
I would like to make a special note for Swiber. The price has hit the top of the bolligner band ( and usually it means it should correct, in my opinion) however the volume increase is very steady, the strongest among all the 4 stocks and it satisfy the rest of all my criteria.Therefore I would think it could be a run up stock too.


These are the reasons for me choosing these stocks

• Cosco Corp

• STX PO

• Swiber

• Tat Hong

*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

Daily review of stock picks

Made a gross mistake on the volume readings and did not outperform the market today.

Also, like I said on my market outlook for the week. The general trend of the market now is very weak, today's closing up does signify that a rebound might be coming again. ( This is because I feel that the long term down trend is still strong)

Made a small mistake in stock picks

Just realized that my stock picks did not take into account the volume change of the stock price.
I will still keep to this list of stocks for the week, but might generate some better stock picks if I can find any.

In general I think the market trend will still rule the direction of most stocks. And the trend is still not clear yet..so in general, staying out of the market would be good..


*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

Stock picks for 10-14th Nov (done on 9th Nov)

(Click to maximize)

Stock picks (using Friday's closing price)
these are meant for long..provided the market general trend is not too down..

*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

TA of UOB and SIA

Responding to our fellow reader Fred Ong's request I shall analyze these 2 stocks.

Without considering the general market trend (which is highly important in these few months), these are what I feel about these 2 stocks

1. UOB

• The trend in general is not strong, I feel that it will be heavily dependent on the STI
• The parabolic SAR does not show a buy/sell call. I.e its neutral
• Its in the middle of the lower and middle of the bollinger band

My conclusion: I would not trade this stock yet, till more definite trend shows. I would wait till the stock hit at least $14 before going long.

1. SIA

• Moving Averages are bullish
• Went up the middle of the bollinger band ( bullish)
  
• However no definite signal from the Parabolic SAR

My conclusion: I find the parabolic SAR a major indicator that I use. In this case, this indicator does not show a definite buy call. And hence I will most probably not buy it using my set of rules. Will need for it to go up to at least $12.40 before I will go long.


*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

Ezra ( 9th Nov)

As requested from one of our readers..

The indicators:
Parabolic SAR : Bullish
MA: Bullish
Volume: Bullish


However, I personally feel that the upside is limited. From what I have observed, the outer bands of the bollinger band usually forms a resistance/support for the underlying stock price. So for this case, if Monday's price is higher than Friday's, there is a high chance for the stock to climb, up to the top of the band. If not, most likely it will start dropping to the center of the band.
Therefore in this case where I am not sure, I would away from trading the stock.


*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

Market out look for 10-14 Nov

• STI

• Hang Seng

• Dow Jones

As you can see, all the 3 indices face the same resistance. If all of them can break above the bollinger band's center on Monday, there is a high chance of a good rally. If not, most probably its going be a down trend again.

So as of now there is no conclusion..must wait till Monday before making the decision.

*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

How this blog will be like (updated)

1. I will first look at the indices of the Dow Jones, STI, Hang Seng index before deciding whether I should go long or go short (market general trend)
   
2. Will generate a list of some stocks to long or short ( depends on the market)
3. When to sell/buy through the week, will be updated on the blog
   
4. The above steps are subject to review daily, if the market trend changes suddenly
   

I will give each stock a percentage weightage of my total portfolio. This is to differentiate what I feel is a better stock than the other 'not as good' stocks.
The final profit/loss will also be calculated after taking this weightage into consideration.


Finally, I hope to be able to update everyday but due to my current busy schedule, I will keep to at least one update a week.


* This blog is serve as a means for me practise my TA, and for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

The power to trade

Decided to start another blog, aside from my first one : www.ntuchartist.blogspot.com

The purpose of this blog, is to simulate buying and selling of stocks/futures. I.e. paper trade.
Thus keeping the other blog strictly to non-trading articles.

I will welcome all comments and suggestions..

Thanks