Market outlook

• Dow Jones

• Hang Seng
• STI

I would recommend shorting the STI if any rebound happens. Keeping time frame of at least 1 week before cutting any lost or when the Red parabolic SAR cuts the price curve.


* This blog is serve as a means for me practise my TA, and for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

Week analysis of market

Dow Jones



Based solely on TA. It seems that it is bearish at the moment. And highly lightly that it is going to go lower.


STI


Based solely on TA. It is not as bearish on the Dow Jones, but it is highly lightly that we will be following the direction of the US. However this 'not as bearish' sign could mean that when there is a rebound in the Dow Jones, the STI will jump higher than the Dow Jones.


In general

I feel that the market now is subject to too many 'big news'. The recent summit's outcome will definitely have an impact of the world's stock markets. Hence I feel that, unless you are investing for the long term, please stay away from the market.

In my personal opinion, TA will be more effective in a trending market where there is no major 'big news' that can on its own change the direction of the market instantly. However in the past few weeks, there are too many packages to 'help' the economy and too many 'big bad news' that are moving the world's market.

Trading now, is really more like gambling.

Market trend update

Looking at the charts, the Asian markets does not seem to be in any major trend.
However the US side seems to be going into the oversold region. lets see if a rebound is going to happen in the next few trading days.. ( hold back on the shorting till the rebound comes..)

STI got whacked again

Once again the market dropped really badly. STI dropped by 78.06 (4.14%)

The market is really volatile once again, whatever gains in a rally is quickly lost.

So I decided to chance trading strategy. I shall now only do shorts, hence even though there might be a small rebound, I will not go long and instead try to find a good time to start shorting the market during the rebound.

My simulations for the past 1 year shows that almost any kind of shorting method is profitable. This shows that the bear market is affecting almost every stock. And if you actually try to go long, the returns are really really small.

Lets try out the new strategy..which means, for now, we shall stay away till the market shows a good down trend..

Keep watch on this blog for more updates!

Trading simulator

Those who are interested to try out trading futures, here is a simulator with real quotes from SGX
( Given to me by one of our readers)

Link : http://futuressimulator.sgx.if5.com/


Also, just a note on the market. It seems like sentiments are still not clear. Yesterday's rise might be a false alarm. We are still in a very neutral market trend region..(very close to the short term MAs and the center of the bollinger band) for the short term. So by right, trading should be reduced to a minimum as its actually more of 'tikaming' now then trading..

TA on Jaya Holdings and Oceanus

As requested by bay

• Oceanus

In my opinion, it is bullish, as all the signals are there.
However, it has the same problem with volume as Tat Hong. A big drop in volume from 5-6 Nov, though it is still increasing from 6-10 Nov. Also, the volume signal here is not as good as Tat Hong, as the increase in volume is nothing out of the ordinary. Whereas Tat Hong's increase in volume is something unusual.
Thus, I would not trade this stock as not all signals are clear, even though most signals shows a bullish trend.

• Jaya Holdings

I would definitely not trade this. The parabolic SAR almost gives a sell signal. Together with an increase in volume as the share price dropped. The stock is also trading below the moving averages.



*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.

New stock picks (updated)

Looked through my list of stocks again, and this time I included the volume parameter and came up with these stocks ( based on closing price of 10 Nov)

• Cosco Corp $0.93
• STX PO $1.04
• Swiber $0.71
• Tat Hong $0.615

Used a combination of Parabolic SAR, moving averages , bollinger band and volume to come up with this list.
I would like to make a special note for Swiber. The price has hit the top of the bolligner band ( and usually it means it should correct, in my opinion) however the volume increase is very steady, the strongest among all the 4 stocks and it satisfy the rest of all my criteria.Therefore I would think it could be a run up stock too.


These are the reasons for me choosing these stocks

• Cosco Corp

• STX PO

• Swiber

• Tat Hong

*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.